10 signatures reached
To: Mayor Dan Pope
Extend Shelter in Place order for Lubbock, TX
Extend current Shelter in Place order for Lubbock, TX to April 30, 2020 at the earliest. Continue to reassess the COVID-19 response and extend the Shelter in Place order beyond April 30, 2020 as needed.
Why is this important?
As of March 31, 2020, there are 100 reported cases of COVID-19 in Lubbock. Yesterday there were 41 cases. Depending on the level of testing, there will be many more reported cases by the end of the week, probably approaching 200 and counting. This number is arrived at by taking the number of new cases since yesterday 36, and adding it for each day until Saturday. This is a simplistic estimate that will certainly underestimate the true number, since this assumes that the growth won't increase each day but instead remain constant. This is an underestimate since, in exponential growth, the rates increase depending on the previous rate (so the growth rates are not constant).
Further, the people who are being tested are those who have the most severe symptoms, leading to the reported cases underestimating the true cases. Many asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases of COVID-19 have not yet been tested. This implies that the growth rate, which depends on reported cases, is an underestimate of the true growth rate, so COVID-19 is spreading more rapidly in Lubbock than we currently understand.
Lubbock hospitals are exemplary and have substantial resources prepared to handle this pandemic, however, the growth rate is larger than we hope and may soon inundate the hospitals. Whether the hospitals can handle a large number of cases or not, it is still a good decision to protect their resources available to fight the virus. This is best done as a community by sheltering in place for a longer period of time, so as to reduce the number of cases the hospitals need to care for. This preserves the resources needed to safely care for the patients as well as the doctors and nurses working on the front lines.
It is a difficult decision to order a shelter-in-place for a longer period of time when there is hope that such an order isn't needed, since it could appear to be a greater measure than what is necessary. However, by not ordering a shelter-in-place for a long enough time, the virus will spread beyond control so that other actions cannot rectify the situation. The longer the order is extended, the better.
This is an opportunity for Lubbock to emerge as a leader in West Texas on how to combat COVID-19, and protect the wonderful people and healthcare workers in the city.