To: U.S. Department of Transportation
It's Time for Transportation Forecasts that Get it Right
The Department of Transportation needs to update its methods for forecasting driving, to consider the possibility that driving levels could stagnate and other modes of travel could increase.
Why is this important?
If an investment banker made the wrong call on 61 stocks in a row, their clients would take their money somewhere else.
But that’s exactly what the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has done when it comes to forecasting how much Americans drive. They've overestimated driving levels for 61 consecutive forecasts, causing billions of dollars to be wasted on unneeded new highways, and causing lagging investment in transit and maintenance.
In reality, Americans have cut back on driving for nine years in a row. And as the DOT updates their next forecast, we need them to get it right.
In the 61 forecasts released by the DOT since 1999, actual driving totals have been far below forecasts every single time. This year’s forecast was bizarrely even wrong about the past, projecting that Americans drove five percent more in 2012 than they actually did.
Our spending of transportation tax dollars should match how we actually get around -- and right now, that means new rail and bus routes, improved paths for bicycles and pedestrians, and maintaining and repairing our existing roads and bridges. Alternative kinds of travel are growing increasingly popular, especially among the Millennials -- who will be the chief users of our future transportation system.
Part of the problem is that state governments make bad forecasts, too, and when the feds aggregate them together, it’s a case of garbage in, garbage out. Nevertheless, it’s time for the DOT to start making good forecasts, instead of just relying on state projections stuck on cruise control in the past. That way, we can get the investments in 21st century transportation that we need.
But that’s exactly what the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has done when it comes to forecasting how much Americans drive. They've overestimated driving levels for 61 consecutive forecasts, causing billions of dollars to be wasted on unneeded new highways, and causing lagging investment in transit and maintenance.
In reality, Americans have cut back on driving for nine years in a row. And as the DOT updates their next forecast, we need them to get it right.
In the 61 forecasts released by the DOT since 1999, actual driving totals have been far below forecasts every single time. This year’s forecast was bizarrely even wrong about the past, projecting that Americans drove five percent more in 2012 than they actually did.
Our spending of transportation tax dollars should match how we actually get around -- and right now, that means new rail and bus routes, improved paths for bicycles and pedestrians, and maintaining and repairing our existing roads and bridges. Alternative kinds of travel are growing increasingly popular, especially among the Millennials -- who will be the chief users of our future transportation system.
Part of the problem is that state governments make bad forecasts, too, and when the feds aggregate them together, it’s a case of garbage in, garbage out. Nevertheless, it’s time for the DOT to start making good forecasts, instead of just relying on state projections stuck on cruise control in the past. That way, we can get the investments in 21st century transportation that we need.